9Lives

9Lives is an Arbitrum Stylus smart contract implemented with a simple factory/pair pattern. A factory takes a list of outcomes, and creates a variable number of contracts with a minimal viable proxy pointing to share ERC20s, and a trading contract.

Inventors create campaigns (the prediction markets) by locking up "incentive" amounts, and by picking the type of oracle they want to use. Any fees earned in the campaign are sent to the Inventor, which provides incentive to create markets. Markets must be created with a hard deadline and a Beauty Contest or a Infrastructure Market, or with a Contract Interaction type of outcome. The Inventor must communicate to the Factory which oracle they would like to use, and provide the hash of the string that must be used to determine the outcome. This will then set the correct behaviour.

flowchart TD
    Trader --> |Locks up incentive amount, sets parameters| Factory
    Factory --> |Sets start, end, description, if infra market oracle chosen| Infra[Infra market]
    Factory --> |Deploys contract. Sets parameters| Trading
    Factory --> |Configures Longtail pool| Longtail
    Factory --> |Deploys ERC20 assets for each outcome| ERC20s
    Trading --> |Disables Longtail once trading is done| Factory
    ERC20s --> |Burns and mints supply| Trading
    Infra --> |Tells Trading who won| Trading

Optimistic Infra Markets are betting situations where Staked ARB is locked up as LARB, which is used to predict the outcome of a situation. They exist in an "optimistic" state where anyone can claim which outcome took place for 2 days, then for a grace period of two days, anyone can "whinge" about the outcome, supplying collateral that is slashed if they are incorrect. This begins a stage of betting on the outcome. A voting ERC20 from OpenZeppellin is used as the wrapped asset. Lockup does the conversion. The outcome voting power is a linear curve that decays until the end of the voting period. Optimistic Infra Markets in progress are markets that are created which resolve after a period of 3 days. These markets are designed to be risk free positions that infrastructure providers can take to "call" an outcome based on the results of a text field. These text fields can be empty or purely textual (as is the case with a string), or a description of a oracle's requirement for voting. Losers that bet incorrectly in the Optimistic Infra Market have their funds slashed. After 3 days, a 2 day period begins where correct bettors can slash loser Infra Market predictions and receive the funds themselves. After this 2 day window (5 days has elapsed in total), a "ANYTHING GOES" period begins, where users can slash any bad bettors prediction without regard for their token position (as long as they bet correctly).

stateDiagram
    [*] --> Locked_up : Lock in Lockup
    Locked_up --> Spent : Vest
    [*] --> Waiting : Create Trading
    Spent --> Predicting : Vested`
    Waiting --> Calling : Declare
    Calling --> Whinged : Contest
    Whinged --> Predicting : Predict
    Predicting --> Predicting_over : Time Passes
    Calling --> Calling_over : Time Passes
    Predicting_over --> Completed : End
    Calling_over --> Completed : End
    Completed --> Slashing_begun : Start Slashing
    Completed --> Oracle_submission : Oracle submission
    Slashing_begun --> Slashed : Slash
    Slashed --> Slashing_two_days_over : End Period
    Slashing_two_days_over --> Anything_goes_slash : Slash
    Anything_goes_slash --> Anything_goes_slashing_over : End Period
    Created --> Traded : Trade
    Traded --> Deadline_passed : Deadline
    Deadline_passed --> Oracle_submission : Submit Oracle
    Oracle_submission --> Claim : Claim

Oracle State oracles are very simple comparatively, as presumably the associated Trading contract was configured to allow early activation, so all a caller must do is activate the associated Oracle State contract. These could communicate with LayerZero to pull information from another chain, and the contract will simply check the result of the message. If it's not activated by the date that's given, then it defaults to a "DEFAULT" clause that could be "no" if a user were to try to estimate the price of something.

Roadmap

• UX improvements (shares are more visible, smart account behaviour)
• Mainnet is supported as well. Mainnet has disclosure that funds are locked up until the election is over.
• Achievements and portfolio page is supported. Some socialfi elements.
  1. Users can choose their favourite achievements to display in a minified form next to their Meow Domain.
  2. Meow domains is supported in the UI.
• Collect payoff from the campaign ending in the frontend.
• Custom fee collection and pool configuration supported (use beauty contest with fixed date, many outcomes if they want)
• Anyone can create pools. Custom display of pools a la Ebay customisation.
  1. A fixed fee is sent to creator of when shares are created.
  2. Behind the scenes deferring to the AMM model if more than two outcomes.
  3. Customise the UI of the frontpage for the info
  4. Stack ranking is done for automated updating of frontpage
  5. Campaign report functionality. Images are screened automatically for bad content with CSAM
  6. API to update campaign by the original sender
  7. Custom embed when sharing URL
• Prediction market DAO. Token launch

Building contracts

make build

Updating docs (after editing markdown files)

forge doc -b

Testing

Testing must be done with no trading or contract feature enabled. Testing is only possible on the local environment, or with end to end tests with an Arbitrum node.

./tests.sh

Deployments

Superposition mainnet

Superposition testnet